Chapter 219
Although automobile tariffs settled at 15%, avoiding the worst-case scenario, geopolitical risks have increased, heightening uncertainty in the global economy. This is not necessarily due to the Republican Trump administration, but rather might be seen as a negative legacy including the Democratic Biden administration. Every issue has two sides, so it is not simply a matter of good or bad.Hollywood films from around 1980 portray the decay of central New York, reminding us of an America unimaginable to today’s youth. Manhattan’s skyscraper district was overflowing with homeless people, subway cars and stations were covered in graffiti, and crime rates were high. The book Japan as Number One: Lessons for America (1979) by sociologist Ezra Vogel greatly praised Japan, and at that time, Japanese companies like SONY acquired symbols of American wealth such as Rockefeller Center and the Hollywood film company Columbia Pictures. Times Square's neon billboards were filled with Japanese advertisements. It was only natural that Japan, buying up buildings and companies, came to be seen as a villain like modern-day China. It wasn’t just Japanese semiconductors that were targeted. I can still vividly recall the footage of Japanese cars being smashed and burned by Detroit workers. Japanese products—home appliances and everything else—became targets.
As a sociologist, the author praised the excellent qualities of the Japanese people and their high ability to learn, warning that Americans should follow their example. According to the text, Japanese ranked second in math ability worldwide, and second or third in other fields. Notably, their reading time was twice that of Americans, showing a strong motivation to learn, and the Ministry of International Trade and Industry and the Ministry of Finance were heavily involved in enhancing competitiveness.
The later burst of the bubble aligned with American Japan-bashing, and as we all know, national policies like the Resort Law led the nation into a frenzy of drinking and singing. In education, the "examination hell" was eased in favor of more relaxed approaches. Thus, the decline of national power was an inevitable result of the times rather than governmental failure.
However, while the semiconductor industry suffered a “lost 30 years,” the automobile industry still holds the top position globally. What accounts for this difference?
Semiconductors are a high-risk investment business and heavily reliant on national policy. The U.S. initially held the upper hand with companies like IBM, but Japanese government-backed companies such as NEC and Fujitsu—created to supply electrical and electronic equipment to NTT (formerly the state-run Nippon Telegraph and Telephone)—grew through government support in R&D and capital investment. However, these "pampered sons" who never experienced hardship couldn’t recover from even minor setbacks.
In contrast, the automobile industry was driven by car enthusiasts who admired Western cars and passionately strove to catch up and surpass them. These resilient strivers managed to survive by pushing forward with local production even under adverse conditions. Yet even they became "nails that stick out and get hammered down."
In the late 1990s, the information age was anticipated, and IT ventures rescued the U.S. economy. But as those IT ventures begin to show signs of stagnation, attention has again turned to the once-ignored automobile industry, and protectionism is now inevitable. The sight of GAFA(M) donating to curry favor with President Trump appears meek compared to the previously confident young American executives.
Even with AI, the more we learn about it, the more it seems like just an advanced search engine. Calling it "intelligence" may be presumptuous—perhaps the term "AI" simply reflects hope for future growth. On the hardware side, the emergence of new man-machine interfaces such as AR glasses is highly anticipated.
AR glasses image
August 4, 2025
In a world with no clear future.
p.s. Translated by Chat GPT
