Chapter 226
The Iraq War under the Republican administration of George W. Bush in 2003 comes to mind. In the end, no weapons of mass destruction were ever found. As it was still a time when anger and grief over the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks had not yet subsided, Iraq was branded a “rogue state” and, in some sense, seemed to serve as an outlet for the American public’s anger. The current invasion of Iran, following the Venezuela incident just after the New Year, likewise appears to be a war with little solid justification.Under the 1907 Hague Convention, a nation intending to commence war must formally declare its intention to enter a state of war with the opposing country. In the 1970 Japan–U.S. co-produced war film TORA! TORA! TORA!, the fact that the declaration of war was delivered only after the attack on Pearl Harbor is portrayed as possibly having awakened the “sleeping giant” (the United States). The film depicts the solemn expression of Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto, Commander-in-Chief of the Combined Fleet, who could not wholeheartedly celebrate the success of the surprise attack.
In President Trump’s words and actions, however, there is no trace of such delicacy. It feels like a schoolyard bully suddenly striking a weaker child. Whether the objective is oil interests or an attempt to divert public attention from the Epstein list is unclear, but Japan must play a role in correcting Trump’s reckless behavior. Regardless of whether a formal declaration of war has been made, neither international law nor the United Nations Charter permits war except for purposes of self-defense.
Japan, which depends heavily on the Middle East for most of its oil, cannot avoid the impact. Recently, I had been using Etihad Airways, transiting through Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates, for business trips to Europe. For the time being, however, I may have no choice but to use airlines that transfer through different locations. When flying from Japan to Europe, nonstop flights are too long, so transferring in the Middle East is more comfortable, and I liked it because the fares were reasonable and the service was good. So far, no damage to civilian aircraft has been reported, but anything could happen.
If, in a “foolish leaders championship,” Russia’s Putin is followed by America’s Trump, will China’s Xi Jinping come next? The very thought sends a chill down my spine. Strategically speaking, the orthodox move would be an invasion of Taiwan while the United States is forced to concentrate its military power in the Middle East. Given that China, a nation shaped by centuries of warfare and the birthplace of Sun Tzu’s The Art of War, understands military strategy so well, it is hard to imagine it missing such timing. Yet The Art of War also contains admonitions against war, such as: “War is a matter of vital importance to the state, the realm of life and death, the path to survival or ruin; it must be examined carefully,” and “The supreme art is to preserve the state intact; to destroy it is inferior.”
It would not be a bad idea for China to present itself as a wise leader distinct from the two “foolish” ones. In the long run, the latter course seems overwhelmingly more advantageous. This may be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for President Xi Jinping to assume a leading position in world peace. For Japan, narrowing the distance with China—our closest geopolitical neighbor—could be advantageous in many respects, beginning with the economy. One can only hope that this will be the outcome.
Now, with less than a month remaining in this fiscal term, we appear likely to close with strong financial results, for which I am grateful. Although global conditions continue to deteriorate and uncertainties remain, technological progress shows no sign of slowing. From 2027 onward, the manufacture of mercury-containing fluorescent lamps will be prohibited. The commercialization of alternative light sources to mercury UV lamps cannot be delayed.
Our company logo at the entrance has been renewed.
March 4, Reiwa 8 (2026)
A once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for President Xi Jinping?
