Chapter 179
Recently, only the Chinese threat theory has been emphasized, so I felt that Russia was so energetic? However, speaking of Russia, I remembered the word "acquisition of an ice-free port" in history textbooks. As you know, it's a cold country, so people drink vodka. Especially during the Soviet Union, there was stress, and there were many alcohol addictions, and it is said that the general secretary Gorbachev was also addicted. Putin, who claims to be a warrior, regulated vodka and cigarettes. From generation to generation, Russian emperors pushed southward policies whenever they had the opportunity, and clashed repeatedly in the Crimean Peninsula on the Eastern European side, Afghanistan in Central Asia, and Manchuria in the Far East. During the Soviet era, in 1979, when the United States seemed to be weakened, it invaded Afghanistan. I remember the video of Judo Yasuhiro Yamashita-san's tearful interview at the 1980 Moscow Olympics boycott. The fall of the Afghan government during the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan last year can be inferred to be due to Russia's strong involvement. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan is said to have killed 15,000 young Soviet soldiers, and their failure hastened the end of the Cold War. More than 40 years later, Russia managed to take advantage of the US mismanagement and effortlessly put Afghanistan under practical control. The Crimean Peninsula was acquired by Empress Catherine II in the late 18th century by fighting the Ottoman Empire, but was lost in the Crimean War in the mid-19th century due to the intervention of European countries. In the past and now, the war vie for natural resources and interests, but Ukraine is a country with scarce natural resources like Japan, and most of oil and natural gas depend on Russia, and despite the bitter experience of Chernobyl, it greatly depend on nuclear power plants. Although Russia does not use nuclear weapons, it is clear from the Chernobyl and Fukushima nuclear power plants that it will be as powerful as it is if it attacks the nuclear power plants. Russia is angry that it was not allowed to participate in the Beijing Olympics following Tokyo due to doping problems, and there is no hesitation in the means even in the war. Because 80% of the natural gas is supplied from Russia to Europe via Ukraine, there is no doubt that it is an important region for Russia, but I don't think it is worth to ruin business with Europe in the war. So Putin's speculation should not be the profit and loss account, but the southward policy with the ambition of rebuilding the Russian Empire. He may want to keep the name of the dictator Putin. If so, even Far East Japan cannot be said to be safe. With Russia's backing, missiles may fly from North Korea to nuclear power plants in Japan. All that we are informed about world affairs is convenient, and the reality of the substantive dictatorship may be even worse, as seen in the media blackouts in China and Russia. Since the fall of the Berlin Wall, economic liberalization has progressed, but democratization has not. Russian companies were virtually nationalized, and oligarchs (millionaires) who didn't obey were eliminated. The weakening of the United States, the rise of China, Russia's territorial ambitions, and the flow of independence and diversification in each region are similar to those on the eve of World War II, which had long been away from memory. Due to the exhaustion caused by pandemics and natural disasters, the stock market crash may be a trigger of World War Ⅲ. Keep an eye on the world situation.March 8, 2022
Thinking about the invasion of Ukraine
