Chapter 195
The Nikkei Stock Average hit a 33-year high. In order to understand Japan's lost 30 years, in 1992, I reread "Head-to-Head" by economist Lester Thurlow, who was a professor at MIT. What is surprising is that the problems that Japan is facing now can be identified at a time when the Japanese economy was booming. He asserts that it will be difficult for the Japanese, who accept foreign workers and other closed-minded ideas, to seize world hegemony. The development of the United States after World War II was achieved by a monkey-imitation economy, unlike the economic development of Britain by the Industrial Revolution, and the economic development of Japan was also expressed as a similar monkey-imitation economy. He guessed that the biggest difference between the United States and Japan would be the lack of an army, and that extreme trade imbalances would be short-lived due to push back from surrounding countries. In November 1993, it was suggested that Europe, which had achieved EU integration, could develop using its large market as a weapon, but this did not necessarily go as predicted. Immediately after the Cold War ended at the end of 1991, the threat of communism disappeared, and even in Lester Thurlow, the rapid economic development of communist China in a liberal way, as it is now, and the post-Soviet Union collapse. It would have been difficult to predict that Russia would threaten Europe with a military aggression. However, what I feel while reading is that the country that continues to make efforts for reform wins, and the country that does nothing or neglects to lose is a truth common to companies. As he pointed out, Japan was good at imitating monkeys, so Japan as No. 1 (Sociologist Ezra Vogel's 1979 book, although it did not actually become No. 1, this book sounded a warning to the United States) However, Japan hesitated to change after that, so Japan was defeated by South Korea, Taiwan, and China, who were even better at imitating monkeys. In particular, China, whose GDP was ninth in the world and less than one-twelfth that of the United States, underwent a drastic change from a communist planned economy in line with its policy of reform and opening up. By making explosive use of the magma of civilian vitality that has been accumulated in the human rights suppression that has been seen, it achieved astonishing economic development in a short period of time. Jiang Zemin's party general secretary (later president) should be highly evaluated for his skill. With the opening of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the development of the IT industry, and the revitalization of various other industries, it is no exaggeration to say that China has now surpassed the United States. However, it is not easy to achieve self-transformation to move forward from the dilemma of the monkey imitation economy, where imitation is no longer possible. It can be seen that Xi Jinping's dictatorship China's buildup of military power is trying to overcome the dilemma by demonstrating military power that can stand up to the United States, unlike South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan. That's really wise. Armed force is the only way to counter the United States, which is trying to suppress it with force. It can be said that it is a coping method unique to the ruler of a vast country that is devoted to war, written in China's 4,000-year history and the Three Kingdoms. If I write like this, whose side are you on? I'm not on either side, and I'm just writing what I felt after observing objectively. As seen in the LGBT debate, in the midst of excessive liberalism and values, there is a danger that the barriers between restraint and freedom are disappearing in the liberal camp, which, like former President Trump, claims that even fair election results are fake. I feel Opportunistic wars to protect liberty and opportunistic economic development seem to suggest a dangerous future.
"Head-to-Head" hardcover by Lester Thurlow I bought 30 years ago
June 5, 2023
A dangerous future beyond the lost 30 years
