Chapter 187
It seems that the investment by Taiwanese semiconductor company TSMC is going to be amazing in Kumamoto prefecture, but it will be more than three years before the results come out, so it's better to keep a cool head. I have no intention of pouring cold water on it, but there has never been a successful attempt by the government to intervene in the economy. From a point of view of TSMC, the Japanese government will take over the investment, so there is no reason not to get on board, but Japanese semiconductor manufacturers will be terrified and it is said “Weak eyes and cursed eyes”. To put it plainly, it is a forbidden move (which seems abnormal) that the Ukrainian government supplies weapons and ammunition to Russia invading Ukraine. It's my own opinion, but I don't think TSMC's old semiconductor factory will be operating at full capacity in three years. The competition in the semiconductor business is so intense that it is said that the competition can be pull out the eye of a living horse. It's not the same as building a car factory. Since the United States succeeded in attracting Japanese car manufacturers to the United States, it may have thought that the same approach would work this time as well. The price of a car is determined by its size, but the price of a semiconductor is determined by its performance and the demand at the time. Old generation semiconductors are therefore caught in a price war. Semiconductors made at TSMC factories in the United States and Japan will face severe price competition in the global market with products from conventional semiconductor manufacturers such as Renesas.China is also pushing forward with its own semiconductor manufacturing, so the competition will be even fiercer. Since TSMC is being subsidized, the domestic semiconductor makers will be at a crushing disadvantage. In the first place, in the trend of EVs, can they expect demand for not power semiconductors but conventional silicon semiconductors? It's absurd, but if you think about it a little, you'll understand. Even if Kumamoto prospered, what would happen to the traditional castle towns of semiconductor manufacturers? Then, they will have to look for buyers for excess equipment and personnel that are no longer profitable. I often hear similar stories from Apple's component suppliers. As soon as the suppliers invested on the pretext of ordering a large amount, Apple switched suppliers, and the supplier came to the END. Because of semiconductor shortage hoax these days, the world seems to have lost its composure as I pointed out earlier. Was there really such a thing as a shortage of semiconductors? Isn't it simply a lack of common parts that are cheap and have no manufacturers? Many parts and products are still being imported from China as usual. However, this does not mean that there is no possibility that the tide will turn. The trigger will be the outbreak of war between China and the United States. President Biden's statement that he would send US troops if China invades Taiwan can be taken as a premonition of war. If so, the supply of semiconductors and parts from China will stop, so attracting a factory will be success. Therefore, although it should not happen, it cannot be said that there is no possibility that the United States will go to war with China to prioritize its own economy. As far as China's human rights violations are concerned, it is vulnerable to total import restrictions on products, so an invasion of Taiwan would be essential. However, since the factories of liberal companies, including those of the United States, that are already in China will be abandoned, the debate will be divided. The possibility is low, but I feel that it is not impossible in the sense that the liberal camp will regain the supply chain from clothing and toys to cutting-edge semiconductors. If that happens, every industry will need capital investment. I can't take my eyes off whether the attraction of TSMC to Kumamoto will turn out to be good or bad.
Various semiconductors
October 11, 2022
Excitement in Kumamoto Semiconductor
